Jan 08 2020
The dollar yen and the Middle East have not made any progress, and short cover led recovery
Overseas exchange rate overview:
Dollar and yen rebounded sharply after falling on the foreign exchange market yesterday, the tightening situation in the Middle East (increased geopolitical risk → buying a yen to avoid risk), the fall in Japan time temporarily increased to 107.77 (the lowest level in three months since 10/10, the first time since 10/10), but Like the weekend Friday, when the price fell in the 107.70-80 area, short-cover led the way. After overseas market entry, the US / December service industry PMI (result 52.8, forecast 52.2, last 52.2) and favorable US stocks and long-term interest rate rise (US 10-year bond yield from 1.76% to 1.81%) Rising) and the lack of progress in the Middle East (decreased Fear Index VIX), among others, helped to increase to 108.50 in the afternoon. Despite a slight fall toward the closing, the downside is firm, and as of this writing (5:00 pm Japan time), it has been around 108.44.
Dollar Yen Technical Analysis:
The dollar / yen pair was supported by around 107.70-80 (1/3 low 107.84, 1/6 low 107.77), and the short cover led to a recovery around 108.50. The Ichimoku balance table and the reversal of the three roles (indicating a strong sell signal) have failed again. However, in the late 108 yen range, there are several resistance points such as the 200-day moving average line, the Ichimoku balance table conversion line, the Ichimoku balance table reference line, and the Ichimoku balance table cloud upper limit, so watch out for upward movement from here is considered necessary (there may be little upside).
In terms of fundamentals, 1) differences in the direction of monetary policy between the United States and Japan, 2) the impeachment risk of US President Trump, 3) poor results of US fundamentals, 4) the risk of renewed trade friction between the United States and China, and 4) the UK Uncertainty (relapse of risk of secession without UK agreement), geopolitical risks over the Korean Peninsula, and tensions in the Middle East have left much to remind us of dollar selling and yen buying.